The ASX is set to tumble this morning, after US President Donald Trump gave an ultimatum to Iran that if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully open within 48 hours, the US would “obliterate” Iranian power plants. The comments threaten to push oil prices higher, and that would flow to through to higher interest rates. Over the past few days, Trump has gone from talking about winding down the conflict to obliterating Iranian assets, and the inconsistency is spooking markets.Certainly, there is no sign of fighting diminishing. After Trump’s comments on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, in response, threatened to attack energy, tech and desalination infrastructure in the region. Even if there is some sort of resolution soon, or at least a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the cost of oil will remain high for some time yet.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen has confirmed that six out of about 80 monthly fuel tanker deliveries to Australia in the next four weeks have been cancelled or deferred. It isn’t quite panic stations – Bowen said the government had no plans to invoke emergency powers to ration fuel, even though some petrol stations have run dry.
The housing market is running out of puff with the lowest auction clearance rate over the past week, since 2025. The preliminary combined capitals auction clearance rate came in at 62.7 per cent and every capital city recorded a decline.
Fraud across the country surged last year, with first party fraud (which means between a person and an institution) up 25 per cent last year.
The firing of an IT worker who lost his motivation to work, faked his timesheets while working from home and logged in to his laptop as little as 10 minutes a day has been upheld by the Fair Work Commission.
The world’s top airport has been named, with Singapore’s Changi winning the Skytrax World Airline Award for the second year running. Best of the Aussie airports was Melbourne.
Fear-o-meter
AMP Chief Economist Dr Shane Oliver on rates and fuel prices:
The impact on growth from higher fuel prices on disposable income and possible fuel shortages necessitating rationing will become increasingly apparent in the months ahead.
Current capital city petrol prices of around $2.41 a litre imply a $108 a month rise in the petrol bill for an average household if sustained. Taken together with higher mortgage interest payments from the two rate hikes so far this means a hit to the spending power of households with a mortgage and a petrol car in excess of $300 a month.
And don’t forget that mortgage holders are far more sensitive in their spending to changes in their disposable income than those who have paid off their mortgage.
Depending on how long the disruption lasts the hit to activity could knock one percentage point of economic growth and push the economy back into a per capita recession.
A Formula One partnership is much more than a logo on a car. It’s an opportunity to reach hundreds of millions of people - but only if you know how.
We’re thrilled to launch a new documentary episode exploring the business of sports partnership with Airwallex and Airtasker.
It’s a special part of our Accelerator series this month, where we’ve been talking to ambitious Australian leaders taking their businesses to the world: Employment Hero, Camplify, EatClub and more - all brought to you by Fear & Greed and Airwallex.
On the week ahead for the economy, including the monthly inflation numbers for February:
“We’re looking for a headline figure — and again, we’re still learning how to forecast this — but around about 3.7 to 3.8 percent in annual terms. That does not include the petrol shock that we’ve seen in recent weeks.
The trimmed mean might be a little bit better, probably around 3.3 to 3.4 percent. So still above the midpoint of the RBA target. And as I mentioned, as the governor mentioned last week, that’s why they hiked interest rates — even aside from the oil shock and global conflict issues — they were worried that inflation was not getting back to target quickly enough.”
For the first time in 15 years, over 90% of house resales in every capital city have turned a profit. That's according to Domain’s latest Profit and Loss Report, which covers the second half of last year.
Market
Profitable resales %
Median profit $
Annual change in profit %
Sydney
97.9
750k
11.1
Melbourne
95.9
390k
1.6
Brisbane
99.5
580k
22.9
Adelaide
98.2
540k
15.5
Perth
99.5
528k
25.7
Canberra
93.1
370k
3.0
Hobart
94.3
330k
4.8
Darwin
94.9
201k
14.9
Combined capitals
97.6
530k
14.7
Combined regionals
97.3
330k
15.8
Australia
97.5
440k
14.9
Source: Domain's Profit and Loss Report
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