It is a big week for the housing market because of a likely cut in interest rates tomorrow, but any 25 basis point cut in mortgage rates won’t make a huge difference.
According to the Housing Industry Association, home affordability is at a 30-year low. Essentially Australia hasn’t built enough homes as the population grew. Per capita, home ownership is at its lowest level in 70 years. For those with a mortgage, mortgage payments as a proportion of income are at a 15 year high. That’s a big part of the reason why people are so vulnerable to cost-of-living pressures.
Bank of Queensland’s well-regarded chief economist Peter Munckton has some good news on the supply front.
Residential construction approvals are picking up, and have done since the middle of last year, he says, and it’s been evident in all the largest states. Lower interest rates have likely played a role, as has the slowing of input cost inflation. Worker shortages remain an issue, albeit less so than three years ago.
More needs to be done. A pick up on construction productivity and a slowdown in infrastructure spending (thereby freeing up resources) would help. But at least the sector, according to Munckton, is on the right track.