Federal parliament is back in session this week, the RBA makes its rates decision, and earnings season is in full swing. ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­    ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­  
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f&g newsletter 3-1

Federal parliament is back in session this week, with legislation on gambling, changes to immigration rules, and alterations to the tax regime likely to dominate discussions.

 

Parliament commences tomorrow after the winter break and sits for two weeks. Arguably the biggest issue will be immigration, given the rise of One Nation in the polls. It is a difficult issue for the government, but particularly for the federal Opposition.

 

Also tomorrow, the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision, and most economists expect no change. The commentary from Governor Michele Bullock will be scrutinised about whether the central bank still has a tightening bias.

 

Finally, it's a very big week for earnings. Westpac releases its quarterly update today, Commonwealth Bank, AGL and Suncorp have full years on Wednesday, then Telstra and ANZ release results on Thursday amid a host of others.

 

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Greed-o-meter

108,577 new motor vehicles were sold in July 2026, according to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries and Electric Vehicle Council. That's up 4.2 per cent on the same time last year, and is the highest July sales result on record. But when you look at the list of carmakers, all the growth is coming from EVs.

Brand July sales Change YoY
1 Toyota 20,409 -6.0%
2 BYD 7,857 +70.5%
3 Kia 6,553 -11.5%
4 Mazda 6,458 -13.3%
5 Ford 6,400 -12.1%
6 Hyundai 5,991 -10.4%
7 Tesla 4,778 +421%
8 Chery 4,615 +46.6%
9 GWM 4,518 -4.3%
10 MG 4,284 +42.4%

Source: Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) and Electric Vehicle Council (EVC), reported by Drive.com.au

Fear & Greed Q+A today

Stephen Koukoulas newsletter 7Aug26
On the RBA board meeting today and tomorrow, and how what happens behind closed doors to reach a decision on interest rates:

 

“About five days before the start of each board meeting, the Reserve Bank staff would have prepared what they call the RBA board papers. That’s a big comprehensive analysis of different parts of the economy, and they send it to each of the nine members on the RBA Monetary Policy Board.

 

It usually has a recommendation attached to it, like on hold, or we recommend a hike, these sorts of things. But it’s not locked in concrete, far from it nowadays, particularly with the board being comprised the way that it is. It’ll talk about the GDP framework, consumption plus investment plus government demand plus exports minus imports. They’ll have a segment on inflation, the RBA inflation forecasts, the labour market forecast, wages, unemployment.

 

That’ll go to all the board members who read it before the board meeting. The nine members of the RBA Monetary Policy Board will sit around the board table, they’ll have a discussion on what is the hot topic du jour, and then at the end of the session they’ll have a vote. Who votes for rates up 25 basis points? Who votes for steady? And it’s a simple majority that determines whether rates go up, stay the same, or, when circumstances are different, they come down.”

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News in brief

Auction clearance rates jumped over the past week, with the national preliminary clearance rate coming in at 55.1 per cent, an 11-week high.

 

Energy Minister Chris Bowen has initiated a formal review of the Albanese government’s safeguard mechanism, the primary policy for curbing emissions across Australia’s heavy industrial sectors.

 

An ASX-listed company, whose share price is up 1300 per cent in the past year, is a big winner from the Trump Administration’s decision to invest $US2 billion in companies producing batteries and critical minerals. Sunrise Energy Metals will receive a $US400 million loans from the Pentagon to develop its scandium project in central-west NSW.

 

Extreme heat has killed more than 25,000 people across Europe this year, according to the latest available data compiled by Bloomberg. Germany recorded the highest toll, with an estimated 11,900 excess deaths linked to heat since April.

 

AI has been used to design brand new viruses that are fully functional and can be replicated in a laboratory. It is the first time whole genomes - the full set of genetic instructions for an organisms - have been successfully designed by AI.

Fear-o-meter

Morning Brew on US employment figures:

 

The US lost 23,000 jobs last month, according to government data, surprising analysts, who expected a gain of 100,000 positions. So, where did hiring happen (or not) last month?

    • Restaurants and bars had 26,000 fewer employees, despite the boost they got from the World Cup. Fewer staff members at big-box stores led to a loss of 19,000 retail jobs. Finance shed 14,000 jobs. And public school headcount dropped by 50,000, which some economists said is typical when school is out.
    • On the plus side: Healthcare continued to be the hiring headliner, adding 22,000 jobs. Construction and manufacturing sectors together gained 27,000 positions, likely thanks to the data center buildout.

Meanwhile…unemployment dropped to its lowest level since 2025. Over 260,000 people ditched the labor market last month, driving down the unemployment rate, which doesn’t count anyone who isn’t looking for work. The share of employment-eligible Americans working or job hunting is now at its lowest level since the pandemic.

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