Australian borrowers are bracing for another hit, with the Reserve Bank widely expected to lift interest rates tomorrow for the fourth time this year.
A quarter-point increase would add about $110 a month to repayments on a $700,000 loan. But the decision itself may be less important than what the RBA says about what comes next — particularly whether another increase could follow in November or December.
The economy is sending mixed signals. Consumer spending has held up better than expected, but discretionary retailers including Myer, Cue and KMD Brands are struggling. The housing market is also cooling, with the preliminary national auction clearance rate falling to a ten-week low over the weekend.
The RBA won’t have long to assess whether it has made the right call. This week brings fresh inflation, household spending and building data.
Add elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty, and the outlook for rates remains unusually complicated.
The Australian Financial Review’s annual Power list puts Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at number one and Treasurer Jim Chalmers at number two, highlighting the influence of economic policy over business conditions. RBA governor Michele Bullock ranks sixth, while Commonwealth Bank CEO Matt Comyn is the highest-ranked business leader at number nine.
The Week Ahead with NAB, featuring NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld, looking at the week ahead for the economy including a near-certain interest rate rise tomorrow, and why inflation is proving so difficult to contain:
“What we're observing, particularly in our NAB business survey, but also in conversations with many of our business customers, is that businesses across the board are facing a real intensification of cost challenges.
“Firms feel that they just don't have any other option, because our surveys are telling us that margins are pretty thin at the moment as well, except to pass on those costs. So it's costs pass-through, it's capacity constraints around artificial intelligence… and the bank is also worried that as we move through this cycle of building out data centres, that's going to put upward pressure on the demand, not just for materials, but also labour, skilled labour. And we know that there are shortages in that area anyway.”
September stumbles: September is historically the ASX’s weakest month — and 2026 has been particularly rough. The S&P/ASX 200 is on track to lose more than 4 per cent, with BHP down almost 10 per cent for the month and Wesfarmers, Commonwealth Bank and Rio Tinto also sharply lower.
Government cybersecurity: Deputy PMRichard Marles says Australia’s most sensitive government information is kept behind a “fortress”, following revelations that an OpenAI agent accessed a Medicare statistics portal. OpenAI says its models have also accessed publicly available US government information and has notified dozens of organisations about potentially problematic activity.
Manufacturing workers: Australia’s manufacturing sector needs another 91,000 workers over the next decade, with 12 critical occupations already in shortage. The challenge is compounded by an ageing workforce and a 10 per cent fall in manufacturing apprenticeship commencements last year.
Charter Hall pay fight: Charter Hall investors are demanding answers over $91 million worth of share rights awarded to executives despite the property group apparently falling short of a key performance hurdle. The issue could trigger a protest vote over remuneration at November’s AGM.
Dishwasher secrets: Almost 25 years of HILDA data suggests couples who roughly equally divide paid work, housework and childcare have stronger relationships. Satisfaction tends to decline for the first 24 years before recovering — so if things are getting rocky after two decades, apparently the answer is to hang in there. And perhaps empty the dishwasher.
McDonald’s $8.5 billion makeover: McDonald’s will revamp its 44,000 restaurants worldwide while expanding chicken, drinks and breakfast options. It’s also testing protein-heavy meals for the GLP-1 era and rolling out AI at drive-thrus — meaning even Ronald is now being disrupted by Ozempic and artificial intelligence.
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Fear-o-meter
Super growth is offsetting falling house prices, according to the ABS:
Total household wealth rose by 1.0 per cent, or $201.1 billion, in the June quarter 2026, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Dr Mish Tan, ABS head of finance statistics, said: “Strong growth in superannuation assets in the June quarter 2026 has led to growth in household wealth. Superannuation assets grew by 5.2 per cent and offset a 0.2 per cent fall in the value of land and dwellings.”
“Superannuation growth was driven by growth in global and domestic equity markets, as they recovered from relatively low share price levels at the start of the middle east conflict in March.
“Despite the value of land and dwellings falling for the first time since September 2022, it remains 8.0 per cent higher compared to the same period last year”, Dr Tan said.
The fall in residential land and dwellings was driven by lower property prices. The mean dwelling price fell by 0.7 per cent with falls seen across New South Wales, Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory.
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