It is Friday the 18^th of July 2025. The unemployment rate has risen to its highest level in almost four years, opening the way for an interest rate cut when the Reserve Bank board meets next month. The unemployment rate hit 4.3 per cent in June, up from 4.1 per cent in May, according to the ABS. The last time the unemployment rate was this high was during the COVID pandemic, although to be fair, it did spend pretty much all of the pre-pandemic 40 years above this level.

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News in brief

Superannuation funds have had another very good financial year, with the median growth fund return 10.5 per cent for fiscal 2025. That’s better than the previous two (very good) years, and it means super funds have now returned more than 30 per cent in three years.

Anthony Albanese and his fiancée Jodi Haydon spent their last full day in China yesterday, checking out a bunch of pandas. The Prime Minister described the trip as very successful.

Australia’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing regulator, AUSTRAC, will focus on high-risk sectors such as cash and digital currencies, this financial year. It will also keep a close watch on real estate agents, lawyers, conveyancers and accountants.

Donald Trump has asked Republican politicians if he should fire the Fed chair Jerome Powell, and also taken a swipe at his own base, for pushing what he calls the Jeffrey Epstein hoax.

Eight babies have been born in the UK using genetic material from three different people to prevent devastating and often fatal conditions. The method, pioneered by UK scientists, combines the egg and sperm from a mum and dad with a second egg from a donor woman.

Fear-o-meter

Last week, after the Reserve Bank did not cut interest rates, Westpac chief economist, (and former head of economics at the central bank) Luci Ellis openly wondered why the RBA would delay a cut. She said there was no reason to, and any more data between then and the next meeting wouldn’t add much to the debate.

Ellis was half right. Yesterday’s labour force figures did add to the debate, but not in the way the RBA (or Ellis) might have thought. Unemployment hit a near four year high and monetary policy remains restrictive. Rather than demonstrating the need keep rates on hold rates, the data did the opposite. The RBA needs to cut the official interest rate ASAP.

The central bank was caught out when rates needed to rise. It was too late and that had implications for inflation. The bank is once again behind the curve, and that has implications for economic growth. There is no sure thing in racing or monetary policy, but a rate cut on August 12 is odds on.

Who's talking today?

"The problem with corruption is there's too much greed and not enough fear."

Greed-o-meter

Superannuation returns

Source:Chant West

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