Cameron McCormack, VanEck Australia
"The US CPI print provides a sigh of relief for the Fed and equity markets. Beyond the drop in energy prices reflecting lower oil prices, the biggest takeaway is that core inflation came in flat month on month, and year on year came in lower at 2.6%, suggesting that sticky inflation components are showing mild signs of easing.
"However, with the US labour market conditions improving, this will continue to up upward pressure on services inflation, the largest component of headline inflation. A rate hike by year end is still plausible.
"In contrast, the Australian outlook is more challenging. Inflation is looking stubborn across several components, including housing, food, transport and services. The 4.75% minimum wage increase effective from July adds further cost pressures for businesses.
"Despite the threat of a stagflationary environment emerging locally, we think the terminal rate for this cycle is either the current 4.35%, or 4.6% if the RBA is forced to move once more later this year.
"For equity market positioning, our view is that being defensively positioned and seeking growth at a reasonable price locally is prudent, while exposures to more economically sensitive parts of the global economy look increasingly attractive such as value and small cap companies."