It’s Wednesday the 16th of April, 2025, and the Reserve Bank says it is ready to cut rates if needed. Moscow wants fighter jets close to Darwin, but Indonesia won't allow it. And Guzman y Gomez wins the Mexican food wars. Plus Rebel Sport gets some competition and Star Entertainment finally releases its results.

Listen to today's episode 🎧 

News in brief

The Reserve Bank is open to cutting interest rates in May, after the federal election, if inflation data continues its downward trend, and Donald Trump’s trade wars threaten growth. In fact the RBA expects its preferred measure of underlying inflation to be within its two to three per cent target band when March quarter inflation figures are released in two weeks’ time. 

There were reports yesterday that Russian military planes could be based within 1300km of Darwin, after Moscow requested access to Indonesian airfields. Australian officials scrambled to clarify what was going on, and last night the Indonesian defence minister said it wasn't going to happen, much to the relief of the Australian government.

Guzman Y Gomez is winning the Mexican food wars in Australia, with the owner of the Taco Bell franchise locally putting the brand up for sale. ASX-listed Collins Foods says it will sell its rights to the brand in Australia, or close stores.

British retailer Frasers is making an aggressive push into the sport and fitness goods market, planning to open more than 100 Sports Direct stores. It is a direct attack on Rebel Sport, and part of Frasers' efforts to create a global sporting retailer.

Star Entertainment has finally released its accounts for the second half of last year, and the gaming group lost more than $300 million on the back of falling revenue and higher regulatory costs. The half-year results had been delayed until Star found a rescue package, which happened last week with US-based Bally's promising $300 million. 

Fear-o-meter

Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock is a bit of a scrooge when it comes to interest rates. She looks to be doing everything she can to avoid cutting them.

A couple of months ago, she said the central bank would cut rates if inflation was moving towards the two to three per cent target band. Then her language shifted to within the band, and now Bullock highlights the need for inflation to be at the midpoint – 2.5 per cent.

Next time inflation prints, it will likely show that price rises for the March quarter will be inside the target band. So what about a rate cut?

Yesterday’s RBA minutes from its meeting two weeks ago suggest a rate cut is on the agenda. The meeting was held ahead of Liberation Day – Donald Trump’s tariff announcement. The bank is ready to move in response to international developments, it says.

A rate cut on May 20 is now more likely than not.

Who's talking today?

On how savvy retail investors are, even in the face of extreme market volatility:

 

"64% of investors were more likely...to diversify their portfolio over the next six months. Now, this time last year it was around the 50% mark. More importantly, we're seeing this year more than ever that 50 % of the respondents had recurring investments or were averaging down and investing regularly over a period of time rather than trying to time or pick the market."

Greed-o-meter

National rents rose 1.7% over the March quarter, up from 0.4% in the previous quarter. The March quarter increase has largely been driven by units, which rose 2.3% nationally compared with a 1.4% rise in house rents. That's a reversal of recent trends, where houses consistently outperformed units.

Source: Cotality, formerly known as CoreLogic

Can you help us out?

Sean Aylmer and Adam Lang from the Fear & Greed team are taking part in Royal Far West's Ride For Country Kids - a 380km ride through western NSW. The goal is to raise as much money as possible to improve life options for kids from rural communities.

Neither Sean or Adam are cyclists - so this is well outside their comfort zone (although they do seem to be taking to the lycra a little too keenly). 

If you can help raise a few dollars for the Fear & Greed team, it will be gratefully appreciated. You can donate here. And we'll be giving supporters a shout-out on the podcast too!

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