It's Friday the 17^th of October 2025. Australia’s unemployment rate has jumped to 4.5 per cent, a level last seen during Covid lockdowns, with just 15,000 new jobs created during September. The surprise reading from the ABS pushed the Aussie dollar below 65 US cents and bond yields fell by their most in one session since August, as investors assessed a much greater likelihood of an interest rate cut next month.

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News in brief

The ASX hit a record yesterday following the release of the unemployment figures, helped along by real estate and financial stocks, which are both sensitive to interest rate settings. Around lunchtime yesterday, the S&P/ASX200 hit 9109.7 points setting a new high, before closing up 0.9 per cent to 9,068 points.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock had some candid advice for the federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers yesterday. She said the government needs to do a better job reducing the budget deficit and Australia should strive to deliver stronger fiscal results while the economy is performing reasonably well.

Macquarie Group has sold a network of 50 data centres across North and South America to a consortium including BlackRock, Nvidia and Microsoft, for $US40 billion (or $A60 billion).

Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke says he is planning to introduce legislation that will allow the money-laundering regulator AUSTRAC to crack down on cryptocurrency ATMs.

There is some good news for chocolate lovers. Cocoa prices have tumbled to a 20-month low, ending a two-year rally that had pushed cocoa prices to record highs and put pressure on chocolate prices.

Fear-o-meter

Numbers like yesterday’s unemployment figure trigger hopes of interest rate cuts, and certainly bond markets reacted, pushing the likelihood of a reduction on Melbourne Cup Day to 70 per cent.

Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock over the past week has said the employment market was still a “little tight” and that’s reason to be cool on rate cuts. That comment now looks outdated.

However, the piece of data the RBA really wants to see doesn’t arrive until 29 October. That’s the September quarter inflation figure. In the RBA world, where its charter says it needs to strive for price stability and full employment, inflation is the most equal of equals.

Only after the inflation print can we confidently predict what the Reserve Bank will do on rates.

Fear & Greed Q+A today

What is the VIX Index, and how does it measure fear?

 

The VIX Index closed at its highest-ever level of 82.69 on March 16, 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold and investors sold off stocks. The previous closing high had been in 2008, in the depths of the Global Financial Crisis.

 

This week, the fear gauge jumped to its highest level since April.

 

In today's episode of Q+A, Sean Aylmer and Michael Thompson explore the VIX Index - how it measures fear, and what it means for investors.

Greed-o-meter

Donald Trump regularly dominates the news cycle, but this week a bunch of other stories pushed their way into the top ten too. Media monitoring firm Medianet publishes its Media Visibility Index each week, ranking the topics covered by the Australian print and online media.

Source: Medianet

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