Evidence is building – financial markets ain't improving. The prime reason is the Trump Administration’s economic policies, particularly tariffs, and what that means for global growth and inflation. Placing the reason to one side, look at the evidence over the past week or so. The OECD downgraded global growth. The currency of the safest economy in the world – the US – has taken a tumble. Gold is the place investors hide when things look problematic and the price of the precious metal is now at an all-time high of more than $US3,030. That’s twice the level of two-and-a-half years ago. In the past month the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 12 per cent, the broader-based S&P500 on Wall Street is off more than eight per cent and locally, the S&P/ASX200 has lost seven per cent. The war in the Middle East has effectively restarted with Israel bombing Hamas locations, while Russian President Vladmir Putin has rejected the US’s peace proposal in Ukraine, albeit has agreed to not attack energy infrastructure for the next month. The global outlook is very uncertain and it’s crook in financial markets. If you don’t believe me, check your current superannuation balance and compare it to a month ago, or even the end of December. For the majority, it is going backwards.
Albanese might still win the election in his own right
There’s a sense that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is fighting back against Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, making it unlikely that the coalition will form government after the federal election in early May. The polls have the coalition ahead on a two-party preferred basis 51-49 per cent. But in the all-important measure of preferred PM, Albanese comes out on top. A couple of things over the next few weeks will have a great bearing on who wins the next election. First, how leaders respond to Donald Trump’s increasingly erratic economic policies. Dutton initially sympathised with Trump’s policies (as opposed to embracing them). That’s no longer looking like a great strategy. Second is next week’s budget. It seems that the projected deficit this financial year will be smaller than forecast in December. The government didn’t want to have a budget, preferring to go to an election but ex-cyclone Alfred changed that plan. The budget, it seems, won’t be a disaster and that’s good news for Labor. With so much uncertainty in the world, the incumbent normally gets the advantage. A minority Labor government is still the most likely outcome, but after the past week or so, a majority ALP government is a growing possibility.
BYD fast charging is a game changer for all vehicles
If BYD’s five minute car charging promise this week is true, then the whole automobile industry will be tipped on its head. The Holy Grail for the electric vehicle industry is quick charging times. When someone can pull into a charging station, fill up and get out inside ten minutes, then people will buy an EV. BYD claims to have created a new battery and charging system capable of providing 400 kilometres of range in five minutes. The manufacturers will start selling the new technology next month. There’s two parts to the equation. The cars need the battery system to accept 1,000 kilowatts of power – effectively allowing peak charging of two kilometres per second. The other part is the charging infrastructure able to provide that power needs to be rolled out. BYD is ahead of the pack on charging times. Its claim of 400km in five minutes is against Tesla’s 275km in 15 minutes, and Mercedes Benz 325km in ten minutes. There are questions over safety and battery life, but BYD and other EV producers will continue to work to lessen those risks. The announcement this week is a gamechanger for the automobile industry.
Dopamine, addiction & the stories we tell ourselves
This week, Fear & Greed’s Adam Lang provides his favourite lessons from a recent episode of the podcast Diary of a CEO. In the podcast, Dr Anna Lembke and Steven Bartlett discuss the link between addiction and childhood trauma, how exercise balances your dopamine system, the benefits of chasing pain, and the real effects of alcohol on the brain. These passages of the conversation were particularly notable:
What I have learned over time is that the way people tell their stories is a window into their model of the world and that there are healthy narratives and not-so-healthy narratives… When people come into the room, and they tell their life story in such a way that they're always the victim of other people and circumstance in the world, those are people who are, number one, not doing well, and number two, not going to do well going forward unless they change that narrative to acknowledge what they've contributed to the problem.
And the reason for that is because the way that we narrate our lives is not just a way to understand our past; it actually is our roadmap for the future. So, if I see myself as a victim, and that's my narrative, I will literally create victimhood for myself going forward. I will literally change my sensed experience so that whatever happens, I'll make sure I end up as a victim.
BEST OF THE WEEK
IF YOU MISSED THIS GUEST, CATCH UP NOW
We're a very wary bunch. Australians are increasingly worried they're being lied to by government, business leaders and journalists. Tom Robinson, CEO of Edelman Australia, joined us in the studio to talk about the Edelman Trust Barometer, which paints a very bleak picture - particularly the number of people who believe 'hostile activism' is the way to drive change. It's not all bad news for Australian businesses, but the message is clear: trust is fragile. Break it, and it's hard to win it back.
"Been hearing non-stop about the gold price climbing. Everybody wants gold, everybody's buying it because it's safe - I get that. But WHO is actually buying it, and WHERE is it? It's not like you can just walk into Coles and Woolies and get a couple of ounces of gold from the deli. So how does it actually work?"
AND ONE LAST THING...
This story has it all: a mysterious millionaire, cutting edge science, and a quest to live under the sea. An anonymous UK investor has tipped something like £100 million into Deep, a start-up with a lofty goal: to have humans living under the ocean by 2027. CNN got to tour the project at a flooded quarry in Wales, and if this video is anything to go by, we can all get ready to sleep with the fishes.
