Australia faces a double blow from inflation and unemployment

Australia is facing an uncomfortable economic outlook, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting some of the highest inflation in the developed world next year, alongside one of the biggest increases in unemployment.

The IMF expects Australian inflation to ease from 3.9 per cent this year to 3.1 per cent in 2027, still above the Reserve Bank's target band and the fifth-highest rate among advanced economies. Unemployment is forecast to rise from 4.4 to 4.7 per cent, while economic growth slows to just 1.6 per cent.

The warnings come as the RBA signals it could lift interest rates again, despite already pushing the cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.6 per cent. Minutes from its latest meeting show the board was unanimous in raising rates, concerned that higher energy prices, global uncertainty and persistent domestic inflation could make price pressures harder to control.

Meanwhile, NAB's latest business survey paints an increasingly gloomy picture. Business confidence has fallen to one of its lowest readings on record, while employment conditions are the weakest in five years.

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Greed-o-meter

Corporate insolvencies remain well above pre-pandemic levels, illustrating the pressures businesses are under. Data from CreditorWatch reveals a dramatic spike in business failures in August (reflecting, in part, the collapse of major property developer Bathla and its extensive network of companies). That pushed monthly insolvencies above 1,800, before falling back to 934 in September. The broader trend highlights the difficult conditions facing businesses, particularly in construction and property development.

Fear & Greed Q+A today

On how Australian SMEs are embracing AI, and the cost of waiting to get on board:

 

"For us, it's fascinating to see that small businesses actually can adopt technology as fast, if not even faster than large enterprises.

 

And so one of the remarkable things of AI, the age of AI for us, is to see that it's really a huge advantage for small business. There's also a high level of curiosity within the leadership.

 

So if you think about implementation and adapting of technology, it depends very much on leaders and their own style, attitude and the thinking they have. And you see that also impacting the adoption rate in small businesses a lot.

 

... And quite frankly, it's also then leading in a competitive position where we just see the ones who are using it have a three times higher ROI. We just did... research where 22 per cent of companies are really end-to-end using technology. They have three times higher ROI on the usage of their technology, and this all ends in growth."

News in brief

Egg wars: Australia's biggest egg supplier, Sunny Queen, and 11 other businesses face Federal Court proceedings over allegations they illegally coordinated egg production, supply and expansion plans. The ACCC alleges the conduct reduced competition and potentially left consumers paying higher prices.

ASIC warns mortgage brokers: ASIC has found mortgage brokers sometimes recommended more expensive home loans without adequately explaining why they were better for customers. With brokers now arranging more than 80 per cent of Australian home loans, the regulator wants stronger supervision, better records and improved complaints handling.

Telstra bets on AI infrastructure: Telstra is positioning itself as a major infrastructure provider to technology companies and data centre developers, with growing demand for its fibre network. At its annual meeting, the company also addressed concerns about Starlink, arguing satellite services would complement rather than replace traditional mobile networks.

Pocock attacks AI inquiry: Independent senator David Pocock has accused Labor and the Coalition of undermining a parliamentary inquiry into artificial intelligence, following revelations the prime minister's office made changes to draft recommendations. Pocock says concerns about copyright, jobs and potential data centre levies are being overlooked.

Bedbugs ground Qantas flight: Qantas cancelled a Rome-to-Perth flight after passengers on the previous service reportedly complained of bedbug bites during the 17-hour journey. The aircraft was grounded for a deep clean, with affected passengers accommodated and rebooked within 48 hours.

Fear-o-meter

Extract from the Reserve Bank Board minutes:

"The strongest argument for raising the cash rate target at this meeting was that several of the upside risks identified in August had since materialised or were building.

"Members noted that there had been additional signals from the July inflation data that domestic capacity pressures may be more extensive than assumed in the August forecast. That implication was supported by increasingly prevalent messages from liaison about broad-based cost pressures and growth in unit labour costs remaining higher than judged to be consistent with the inflation target (given continued weakness in productivity growth). When combined with the slightly stronger-than-expected growth in GDP and signs from leading indicators that labour demand was proving resilient, it was reasonable to conclude that excess demand in the economy was greater than members had previously assessed.

"International developments added to the view that upside risks to the inflation forecast had materialised. The Middle East conflict had escalated and oil prices were substantially above the level assumed in the August forecasts."

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