House prices have kicked off the year stronger than expected, with Cotality’s Home Value Index rising 0.8 per cent in January, stronger than the previous month. It came as the first big week of auctions showed an improved preliminary clearance rate for most capital cities. Behind the headline number from Cotality, there were clear disparities. Sydney and Melbourne weighed on the figures, recording just a 0.2 per cent and 0.1 per cent increase respectively in January.

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News in brief

With Sussan Ley, the leader of the federal Liberal Party, and David Littleproud, the leader of the federal Nationals both facing possible leadership spills this week, the Coalition is now the third choice for voters behind Labor and One Nation. And Pauline Hanson, the leader of One Nation, is now the most popular politician in the country.

The Reserve Bank board convenes today for two days and will at 2:30pm tomorrow afternoon pronounce whether interest rates will stay on hold or rise. Most economists are tipping a hike.

Nine Entertainment is getting out of radio, announcing a deal to sell its network of talkback stations to pub baron Arthur Laundy and his family for $56 million. It includes 2GB and 3AW, the number one stations in Sydney and Melbourne respectively. At the same time, Nine is buying outdoor advertising group QMS for $850 million, using proceeds from its sale of Domain last year.

US President Donald Trump announced Kevin Warsh would replace Jerome Powell as head of the Federal Reserve in May. Markets reacted positively to the announcement with investors hopeful the appointee will keep a watch on inflation. That sent gold prices ten per cent lower and silver prices nearly 30 per cent lower.

The latest trove of Epstein correspondence released over the weekend highlight the relationship between the convicted sex offender and high profile political and business leaders, including Bill Gates and Elon Musk, though throw little new light about his relationship with Donald Trump.

Fear-o-meter

Cotality’s Tim Lawless on the January Home Value Index:

The first week of auction reporting for 2026 saw a marked pick up in the number of homes taken under the hammer, with 1,629 auctions held across the capital cities. This was a 17.2 per cent rise from the same week a year ago, with every capital city except Perth recording a rise in auction activity. The previous four weeks saw only 483 auctions held in total.

The rise in activity came with a sharp pick up in the preliminary auction clearance rate, which rose to 69.7 per cent. As a retrospective, clearance rates faded through most of spring and early summer of 2025, with the preliminary clearance rate peaking at 77.9 per cent over the week ending September 21, before gradually reducing to 62.7 per cent at the end of the auction season in mid-December.

This week’s 69.7 per cent early clearance rate was the highest since the week ending November.

The pickup in the preliminary clearance rate could be a sign of vendors adjusting their pricing expectation ahead of an expected rate hike and the potential for a broader easing in purchasing demand.

Fear & Greed Q+A today

On the week ahead for the economy, headlined by the RBA board meeting today and tomorrow:

 

“The rate hike is definitely on the table. The RBA didn’t anticipate this inflation result, the unemployment rate being as low as it is, and even the strength we’ve seen in household spending. So the debate will be whether they move with a twenty-five basis point hike now or wait. They’ll be asking whether some of what we’re seeing is noise — administered prices going up, quirks in the labour market — or whether it’s a genuine shift. They’ll also be looking internationally and asking what happens if they hike and then global conditions deteriorate. My short answer is I think they’ll hold, but with no degree of confidence in that forecast. Regardless of what they do, Michele Bullock will be as hawkish as she can be in the press conference. The hike is absolutely in play, no question about that.”

Greed-o-meter

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson is now the most popular political leader in the country, according to the latest Redbridge Group/Accent Research poll in the Australian Financial Review. The Liberal Party's woes are clear: current leader Sussan Ley has just a 10pc favourability rating, and the two potential leadership rivals within her party (Andrew Hastie, who ruled out a challenge last week, and Angus Taylor), don't fare much better.

Source: Redbridge Group, Accent Research, reported in AFR

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