Australia’s housing downturn is gathering pace, with prices falling for a sixth consecutive month as higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressures and weak consumer confidence hit buyers.

Cotality’s National Home Value Index fell 3.7 per cent over the September quarter, including a 1.1 per cent drop last month. Sydney is leading the downturn, with prices now 8.6 per cent below their February peak, while Melbourne is down 7.2 per cent from its high. Across the capital cities, 97 per cent of suburbs lost value during the quarter.

And there could be more pressure ahead. The RBA lifted rates to 4.6 per cent this week, while yesterday’s inflation figures showed underlying inflation holding at 3.6 per cent — still well above the 2–3 per cent target.

Markets are pricing another increase by May, while many economists expect it sooner.

There are some factors putting a floor under prices, including housing shortages and stronger demand at the cheaper end of the market. But with borrowing costs at around 15-year highs, the big question is how much further prices have to fall.

Listen to today's episode 🎧 

Greed-o-meter

Australia has six universities inside the global top 100, led by the University of Melbourne, which climbed three places to equal 34th. But the world’s top universities remain remarkably hard to dislodge, with Oxford holding onto number one, ahead of MIT and Princeton. That’s according to the Times Higher Education World University Rankings 2027, which assesses universities on teaching, research, industry and international outlook. Check out the 15 highest-placed Aussie institutions below.

Source: Times Higher Education

Fear & Greed Q+A today

The rules have changed for Australians with large super balances. At Class Ignite 2026, Sean Aylmer spoke with Meg Heffron, Managing Director of Heffron, about Division 296 and what it means for SMSF members:

• How Division 296 works - and why the shift away from taxing unrealised gains was so significant.
• Why 30 June 2026 valuations matter for SMSFs, particularly for members who may be able to access special capital gains relief.
• Why people below the $3 million threshold should be thinking about it now, even if they currently have balances closer to $2.5 million.
• How many SMSF members could be affected, with Class data suggesting around 10% of SMSFs have at least one member with more than $3 million.
• Whether it makes sense to take money out of super, and why changes to trusts and capital gains tax have altered the alternatives.
• Why Meg believes super may still be the best place for many people with between $3 million and $10 million.

News in brief

Mental health claims surge: Mental health is becoming one of Australia’s biggest workplace safety issues. Psychological compensation claims have jumped more than 160 per cent over the past decade, while affected workers spend almost five times longer away from work than those suffering other serious injuries and diseases.

Card surcharges disappear: Credit and debit card surcharges end today, meaning businesses can no longer add an extra fee for payments using major card networks. The RBA estimates the changes will cut payment costs for businesses by around $660 million a year, although some may respond by lifting headline prices.

EV sales hit the accelerator: A record 157,958 electric vehicles were sold in Australia in the first half of 2026 — more than double the previous year. EVs now represent more than one in four new cars sold, helped by cheaper Chinese models and sharply higher petrol and diesel prices.

Greens new leader: David Shoebridge is the new federal Greens leader after defeating Mehreen Faruqi and Sarah Hanson-Young. But the contest has exposed internal tensions, with Faruqi calling for rank-and-file members to be given a vote in future leadership elections.

Manchester City guilty: Manchester City has been found guilty of almost all of the more than 100 financial charges brought against it by the English Premier League. The breaches span nine years and involve alleged wrongdoing worth more than £900 million. Sanctions will be decided separately and could include a major points deduction or even expulsion from the league.

Fear-o-meter

Betashares chief economist David Bassanese on yesterday's inflation figures:

The lower-than-expected trimmed mean CPI reading offers some hope to hard-pressed mortgage holders that another rate rise can be avoided - but they are not out of the woods yet.

The risk of a November rate hike still hangs over the economy, though it will depend critically on the September-quarter inflation results in late October.

The good news is that the trimmed mean reading of 0.2% for August suggests some of July’s 0.5% upside surprise may indeed have reflected seasonal quirks after all. However, the annual trimmed mean rate remained at the uncomfortably high level of 3.6%.

Looking at the details, market services inflation slowed to 0.4%, following a 0.7% rise in July. That should be somewhat reassuring to the RBA.

Moreover, the split between tradable and non-tradable inflation is also notable. Annual non-tradable inflation was 4.5%, compared with 2.9% for tradable inflation, suggesting that while global factors are playing a role, the inflation problem is being driven largely by domestic pressures.

This will keep the RBA on edge as it looks to extinguish the inflationary embers still present across the domestic economy.

My base case remains that the RBA will raise rates at its November policy meeting. However, the decision will depend on September-quarter CPI, due just days before the meeting.

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