It’s Monday the 28th of April, and federal Labor leads the Coalition in the final run to Saturday's election. The housing market stumbles, and airfares to Europe stay high despite competition. Plus Trump criticises Putin, and Oscar judges told to watch the movies they vote on.
Federal Labor, the Liberals and National Party are in the final stretch of campaigning with five days to go before the election. PM Anthony Albanese is firm favourite to return to Lodge next Monday, and barring a disaster, the question is whether it will be as a majority or minority government.
The local housing market is slowing markedly, with auction clearance rates now at their lowest level this year. The number of houses going up for sale is also weak.
Virgin Australia is now flying to Europe, thanks to its partnership with Qatar Airways, but thus far, airfares haven’t fallen. Why? Strong demand for Euro summer travelling.
US President Donald Trump says Russia’s escalating bombardment of Ukraine has left him concerned that Russia does not want to end the war. He's threatened new sanctions on Moscow.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has introduced a new rule for the Oscars: from now on, members of the academy will be required to actually watch all the nominated films in each category in which they vote.
Fear-o-meter
The Australian housing market is faltering. Final auction clearance rates – as opposed to preliminary clearance rates – are coming in around 57 per cent. That’s not far off one-in-two houses being unsold.
Price growth is also slowing, particularly in the previous boom cities of Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane. Sydney has slowed while the city performing best at the moment is Melbourne. It’s a turnaround from the past couple of years where Melbourne has been the laggard. On Thursday we find out just how much prices have slowed when CoreLogic data is released.
The good news for home owners is that there is a likely interest rate cut about three weeks away. Last time there was a cut – on 19 February – the clearance rate jumped but has been falling ever since.
Notwithstanding the likely rate cut, we need a slowdown in house price rises. Over the past five years, prices are up 39 per cent, much higher than wage rises. A pause is a good thing.
Who's talking today?
There's been a surge in interest in private credit in recent years, even before volatility in equity markets reminded investors about the value of diversification and defensive assets. Tom Cranfield from Zagga takes Sean Aylmer through the rise of real estate private credit:
"The original shift was driven by a change in regulatory rules. And that saw the banks change the amount of market share which they wish to have, particularly with regard to real estate. So project financing, which we are most exposed to... is very strong on providing construction finance to established developers within the middle market.
For us, that segment of the market, which had traditionally been dominated by the four major commercial trading banks in 2015, 2016, they started to recede their market share. And it's the growth of that, driven by the withdrawal of the banks, that has established the private credit sector because you can get the returns in a manner that we believe to be safe, stable, consistent."
The highest-grossing movie so far this year is one you may not have actually heard of. Ne Zha 2 is a Chinese animated film that has smashed box office records - it's currently the highest-grossing animated film of all time, surpassing previous record holders like Inside Out 2 and Frozen. And while it has been released in other markets too, nearly all of its $1.9B in revenue has been generated within China. Extraordinary.
Sean Aylmer and Adam Lang from the Fear & Greed team are taking part in Royal Far West's Ride For Country Kids - a 380km ride through western NSW. The goal is to raise as much money as possible to improve life options for kids from rural communities.
Neither Sean or Adam are cyclists - so this is well outside their comfort zone (although they do seem to be taking to the lycra a little too keenly).
If you can help raise a few dollars for the Fear & Greed team, it will be gratefully appreciated. You can donate here. And we'll be giving supporters a shout-out on the podcast too!
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