This time a week ago, the bond market had priced in a rate cut for early 2026. Then the October inflation figure printed higher than expected, and now the market has priced in a 70 per cent chance of a rate hike next year.
Bond markets are all-powerful, and the closest thing to all-knowing. President Bill Clinton’s adviser James Carville said in 1993: “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter, but now I want to come back as the bond market”.
The bad news for home borrowers, but good news for many investors, is that Aussie bond yields are at ten-month highs. Yesterday the three-year bond rate rose to 3.93 per cent and the ten-year rate went to 4.62 per cent.
The three-year rate is telling us is that over the next 36 months, interest rates are likely to average 33 basis points higher than what they are now.
The case for a rate hike continues to build.