BHP has warned that copper production will fall by up to 15 per cent in the next 12 months, wiping close to $6 billion off the value of the Big Australian. Commonwealth Bank, which rose 1.5 per cent yesterday, has closed the market value gap between the two biggest companies on the bourse.

There are a couple of challenges for BHP – the weather in Chile could close down mines it operates, and a mechanical failure at its South Australian mind will reduce output. In the last month BHP’s share price has fallen ten per cent, and the group is now worth $301 billion.

Commonwealth Bank has had a better run and is up seven per cent over the past month, and 12 per cent since its low in mid-May. Its market capitalisation is now $289 billion.

The top ten on the ASX now comprises four big banks and Macquarie Group, two miners, BHP and Rio Tinto, a retailer Wesfarmers, a property company Goodman, and a healthcare stock, CSL.

Listen to today's episode 🎧 

Greed-o-meter

Here's the current state of play for the top ten companies on the ASX:

Source: MarketIndex

Fear & Greed Q+A today

On private credit - the opportunities for investors, and the outlook for the broader market:

 

“Everything sits quite healthy at the moment. That was the case in 2007. Is it going to be a similar type credit crunch? I think because we are seeing some negative press, we've had three interest rate rises since February, and we've got all this global uncertainty at the moment, are we going to see volatility in the back end of the year? I think the answer has to be yes.

 

Can Australian debt markets, and particularly the private credit market, absorb that volatility? Largely, yes. But I definitely think we're going to see a few winners and losers come through.”

News in brief

ASIC has been asked to prioritise “emerging regulatory areas” including digital payments, scam prevention, and the auditing sector. The federal government yesterday released new statements of expectations for the ASIC and APRA – the banking regulator. They have been told to focus more on promoting growth and unlocking productivity.

Pauline Hanson is under fire for being on the Italian island of Sicily, hanging out with Gina Rinehart, rather than being back home disciplining One Nation MP Malcom Roberts over a social media post that repeated an anti-semitic trope.

Streaming prices are on the rise, with Foxtel lifting the price of its cable bundle for hundreds of thousands of its customers as broadcasters push through the cost of sports rights to viewers.

The Pentagon will begin screening male troops for testosterone deficiency. Using the slogan “High-T Department of War”, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the new screening for troops aged 30 and up would ensure they have the right testosterone levels to operate at their absolute best.

On Wall Street, it's earnings season and five of the country’s biggest banks collectively reported $US49 billion in profits for the June quarter. It was a record amount and well above expectations.

Fear-o-meter

Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Insights Index

Household spending rose a modest 0.3 per cent in June, but … inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates are leading to a pull back by consumers, with End of Financial Year (EOFY) sales less impactful than 2025.

The latest data showed gains across 10 of the 12 categories, led by Utilities and Education. Compared to 2025, spending on household goods had a soft month despite the EOFY sales, with retail spending easing to 0.2 per cent in June comparted to 0.6 per cent in May.

Spending on Hospitality rose only marginally by 0.1 per cent in June, compared to 0.9 per cent growth in May, indicating that sporting events hosted through June did little to boost spending growth.

“Slower household income growth, together with the ‘wealth effect’ from a downturn in the housing market is expected to weigh on spending. However, consumers may dip into their savings buffers which would see spending slow less than we expect," CommBank’s Head of Australian Economics, Belinda Allen, said.

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