Much of economics is about how people feel. Do they feel rich or poor? Do they think prices will rise or fall? Is now a good time to make a large purchase?
Several economic surveys yesterday, on consumer sentiment from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute, and from ANZ and Roy Morgan, and on business confidence from National Australia Bank, provided mixed views.
The upshot: Inflation expectations are on the rise, even if prices aren’t increasing significantly.
The problem with inflation expectations is if people think prices are going up, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. People demand higher wages and expect to pay more for goods. As a result, prices rise.
Adding to the inflation pressure is what’s known as the “wealth effect”. People that feel wealthy spend more. ABS figures showing that the total value of the housing sector is now $12.3 trillion, and median values in NSW, Queensland and Western Australia have pushed beyond $1 million, suggest a “wealth effect” is kicking in.
All this adds weight to the argument that interest rates need to rise.